Macro & Policy/Currency & Rates
Why US Real Yields Just Hit a 2008 High — And It's Not About Oil
The 30-year US Treasury real yield recently hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis — even as textbook logic suggests an oil price shock should push real yields lower, not higher. Understanding why requires breaking the nominal interest rate down into its component parts, and tracing a structural supply-demand imbalance building in the Treasury market. This piece also covers the Au..