Why Copper Just Hit Near-Record Prices — And What It Means for Korean Battery Makers

Copper just came within striking distance of an all-time high, and cobalt is climbing alongside it. The trigger traces back to a single government order out of the Democratic Republic of Congo — the world's dominant cobalt producer and a major copper supplier — banning the export of unprocessed copper and cobalt concentrate. For Korean battery and semiconductor supply chains, both heavily exposed to these metals, understanding whether this is a durable supply shock or a familiar pattern worth discounting matters.

Table of Contents

• The Political Backdrop in the DRC
• The August 2026 Export Ban
• The Indonesia Playbook — And Its Complications
• Washington's Interest: Critical Minerals and China Leverage
• Why Copper and Cobalt Prices Are Reacting Differently
• A Fourth Attempt — And Reasons for Caution
• Implications for Korean Battery and Chip Supply Chains
• Bottom Line

The Political Backdrop in the DRC

The Democratic Republic of Congo derives more than 90% of its export revenue from minerals. President Félix Tshisekedi is pursuing a third term, which requires a constitutional amendment since the current constitution limits presidents to two terms. Both houses of Congo's parliament passed procedural legislation enabling a referendum on the amendment in June 2026, and the country's constitutional court ruled the referendum process constitutional in July. With the legislative and judicial steps cleared, a national referendum remains the final requirement before Tshisekedi could pursue a third term. Resource nationalism — nationalizing mineral control and channeling more mining revenue to the state — has emerged as a central campaign message ahead of that vote.

Congo's Fourth Export Ban: Will This Time Actually Stick?

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The August 2026 Export Ban

On August 6, 2026, Reuters obtained and published a government order banning immediate export of copper and cobalt concentrate — the unprocessed raw ore — requiring instead that smelting and processing happen domestically before export, capturing more value inside the country. Congo is the world's largest cobalt producer and a major copper supplier, accounting for roughly 73% of global cobalt mining, 14% of mined copper, and 10% of refined copper as of 2025. Beyond the concentrate export ban, Congo has also introduced a cobalt export quota capping shipments at 96,600 tons annually for 2026 and 2027 — less than half of 2025 production levels, making the quota a more binding constraint on supply than the concentrate ban itself.

The Indonesia Playbook — And Its Complications

Congo's strategy explicitly follows Indonesia's 2020 nickel ore export ban, which successfully drew smelting investment onshore and pushed Indonesia's share of global nickel production from 13% in 2018 to 43% by 2023 — a headline success story. The underlying picture is more complicated: roughly 75% of Indonesia's nickel smelting capacity is controlled by Chinese companies such as Tsingshan and CATL, with Indonesian state mining largely relegated to supplying raw material, and more than 90% of Indonesia's refined nickel output ultimately flows to China. In effect, resource nationalism aimed at capturing more value domestically ended up transferring much of the value chain to Chinese processors rather than Indonesian ones — a precedent Congo's still-early-stage plan hasn't yet had to confront.

Washington's Interest: Critical Minerals and China Leverage

The US has its own stake in Congo's mineral policy, tied partly to ongoing conflict in eastern Congo involving Rwanda-backed rebel groups that Congo's military has struggled to contain. In December 2025, the Trump administration brokered the "Washington Accords" between Congo and Rwanda, pairing conflict mediation with bilateral agreements securing US access to critical minerals in both countries. The minerals of greatest US interest are cobalt, copper, and coltan (the source of tantalum, used in high-performance capacitors). Cobalt is viewed as the highest priority given its central role in EV batteries, aerospace alloys, and defense applications, combined with heavy current US reliance on Chinese cobalt supply chains. The strategic partnership framework aims to ease US company participation in Congo's mining sector, with the Trump administration reportedly also viewing critical mineral access as a bargaining chip ahead of an expected US-China summit later in 2026.

Roughly 80% of Congo's cobalt mining capacity is currently controlled by Chinese capital, meaning Congo's concentrate export ban has an immediate practical effect: it blocks Chinese-invested mines from shipping unprocessed cobalt ore back to China for refining.

Why Copper and Cobalt Prices Are Reacting Differently

The copper story carries an additional structural wrinkle. China is the world's largest copper smelter but faces a persistent concentrate shortage, forcing Chinese smelters to cut production by more than 10% and prompting the government to halt approval of new smelting capacity. Congo's concentrate export ban removes supply from an already-tight market. Compounding this, severe weather has disrupted major mining operations in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, adding a second simultaneous supply shock. Copper prices have moved to $14,455 per ton following the Reuters report, closing in on the all-time high of $14,527.

A Fourth Attempt — And Reasons for Caution

This isn't Congo's first concentrate export restriction — similar bans were attempted in 2013, 2019, and 2023, making this the fourth such episode. Each prior attempt was eventually reversed because Congo lacks sufficient domestic smelting capacity to process its own output, forcing exports to resume. Some market participants view the current price rally as driven more by sentiment than durable fundamentals for this reason, arguing the ban is unlikely to hold long enough to meaningfully reshape supply chains. Prices have moved regardless, suggesting markets are, for now, pricing the risk as credible enough to matter.

Implications for Korean Battery and Chip Supply Chains

Korean battery manufacturers — including LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and POSCO Future M — rely on cobalt as a key input for battery cathode materials, making Congo's export quota a direct cost and supply variable for Korea's EV battery supply chain. Copper carries a broader footprint across Korean industry, from semiconductor manufacturing and power infrastructure to the AI data center buildout covered in our earlier piece on Korea's power supply challenges. Sustained higher copper and cobalt prices would add input cost pressure across these sectors, while Congo's history of reversing prior export bans suggests the situation is worth monitoring rather than treating as a settled structural shift.

Bottom Line

Congo's August 2026 ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports, tied to President Tshisekedi's resource-nationalist push ahead of a constitutional referendum on a third term, has pushed copper prices near an all-time high and lifted cobalt alongside it — compounded by a separate copper supply disruption in Chile and a persistent concentrate shortage at Chinese smelters. This marks Congo's fourth attempt at similar export restrictions since 2013, and each prior attempt was eventually reversed due to insufficient domestic smelting capacity, a pattern worth weighing against the current price move.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Readers should consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.